PeopleofSuperintelligence

Researcher

Katja Grace

Katja Grace researches how AI may develop and affect society. Her education spanned human ecology and science communication, a Bachelor of Science at the Australian National University, and philosophy study at Carnegie Mellon. She used changes across computer-science domains over time to inform expectations for future AI, then co-founded AI Impacts to investigate AI’s future. Her 2017 and 2024 survey papers gathered researchers’ estimates about AI performance, timelines and impacts; TIME included her in its 2024 AI 100 list. As of October 2026, she is AI Impacts’ co-founder and lead researcher, and writes about AI unemployment and extinction risk.

Works
7
Citations
871
h-index
3

Publication numbers from OpenAlex, as of 14 October 2026.

Photo of Katja Grace

Timeline

  1. 2011

    A turn to philosophy

    She studied human ecology and science communication, completed a Bachelor of Science at the Australian National University with a thesis on anthropic reasoning, and began a philosophy PhD at Carnegie Mellon University.

  2. 2013

    Mapping AI expectations

    She used changes across computer-science domains over time to inform expectations for future AI.

  3. 2014

    Founding AI Impacts

    She joined MIRI and co-founded AI Impacts, a project to investigate questions about AI’s future and its long-term effects.

  4. 2017

    Asking when AI would surpass humans

    With four coauthors, she reported a survey of machine-learning researchers’ estimates for when AI could outperform people in tasks such as translation, truck driving, and surgery.

  5. 2024

    Surveying thousands of AI researchers

    She coauthored a paper reporting forecasts from 2,778 AI researchers on AI progress and its effects. TIME included her in its AI 100 list.

  6. 2025

    Explaining survey methods

    Her 2025 FAQ answered key questions about the methodology of the Expert Survey on Progress in AI.

  7. As of October 2026

    Leading AI Impacts research

    She is AI Impacts’ co-founder and lead researcher. Her 2026 writing connects AI unemployment with extinction risk.

Sources and credits

Photo: aiimpacts.org; About – AI Impacts; creator not stated. License: Not stated by source. Source: aiimpacts.org. Cropped to a square and resized. Ask us to remove or replace this photo.

  1. Katja Grace – Researching the future of AI and its impact on society katjagrace.com. Checked 14 October 2026.
  2. How well can we actually predict the future? Katja Grace on why expert opinion isn’t a great guide to AI’s impact and how to do better 80000hours.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  3. world spirit sock puppet | Inclusive writings of Katja Grace worldspiritsockpuppet.com. Checked 14 October 2026.
  4. AI Researcher Katja Grace - Future of Life Institute futureoflife.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  5. About – AI Impacts aiimpacts.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  6. When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts arxiv.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  7. Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI arxiv.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  8. The 10 most interesting women in Time’s AI 100 list btw.media. Checked 14 October 2026.
  9. FAQ: Expert Survey on Progress in AI methodology blog.aiimpacts.org. Checked 14 October 2026.
  10. AI unemployment and AI extinction are often the same worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com. Checked 14 October 2026.